Gary Duncan, Economics Editor and Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent
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The deepening toll from the global financial crisis could trigger the failure of a large US bank within months, a respected former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund claimed today, fuelling another battering for banking shares.
Professor Kenneth Rogoff, a leading academic economist, said there was yet worse news to come from the worldwide credit crunch and financial turmoil, particularly in the United States, and that a high-profile casualty among American banks was highly likely.
“The US is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say the worst is to come,” Prof Rogoff said at a conference in Singapore.
In an ominous warning, he added: “We’re not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we’re going to see a whopper, we’re going to see a big one — one of the big investment banks or big banks,” he said.
Rising anxieties over “worse to come” in the credit crisis sent shares tumbling in Europe and Asia.
In London, the FTSE 100 index extended opening losses as widespread fears over the financial sector's woes led to another battering for stocks. The FTSE closed 129.8 points, or 2.38 per cent, lower at 5,320.4, pushing it into bear market territory — a level 20 per cent below the October 12, 2007 peak of 6730.71 — for the sixth time in two months. Germany's Dax shed 2.4%, while the CAC 40 in Paris lost 2.5%.
Professor Rogoff, who was chief economist at the IMF from 2001 to 2004, predicted that the crisis would foster a new wave of consolidation in the US financial sector before it was over, with mergers between large institutions.
He also suggested that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the struggling US secondary mortgage lending giants, were likely to cease to exist in their present form within a few years.
His prediction over the fate of Fannie and Freddie came after investors dumped the two groups’ shares on Monday after reports suggested that the US Treasury may have no choice but to effectively nationalise them.
The professor also sounded a warning over rising US inflation, which rose last month to its highest since 1991, and criticised the Federal Reserve for having cut American interest rates too drastically. “Cutting interest rates is going to lead to a lot of inflation in the next few years in the United States,” he said.
As investors' edginess over the threat of further financial turbulence sent equity markets into a further spin, bank shares were hit hardest. Among the biggest fallers in London trade were HBOS, down 6 per cent, Royal Bank of Scotland, whose shares plunged by 5 per cent, while HSBC fell 3.6 per cent. In continental Europe, Spain's Banco Santander was off 2.35 per cent, and BNP Paribas lost 3.8 per cent.
Persistent worries over the rapidly deteriorating economic outlook in the UK also saw sterling succumb to fresh losses. The pound lost almost a cent against the dollar, dropping to $1.881, above the near-two year lows plumbed on Friday.
Earlier, there were fresh jitters in Asia, with the region's leading bourses in sharp retreat after a dire overnight performance by Wall Street left the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by more than 180 points. Both Asian markets and Wall Street were unnerved by suggestions over the prospects for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
While Japanese banks have remained relatively under-exposed to sub-prime mortgage products, many fear that they would be heavily exposed to a nationalisation of Fannie and Freddie. The large Japanese financial houses hold around Y9.6 trillion (£47 billion) in bonds and mortgage-backed paper issued by housing finance groups in the US.
“If the recapitalisation talk is realised, there are no assurances that the securities that have been issued [by U.S. mortgage firms] will be 100 per cent guaranteed,” said Yutaka Shiraki, a senior equity strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.
Financial sector shares were particularly badly hit in Tokyo, where they led the Nikkei 225 Index into a 300-point decline. The selling continued throughout the day, and peaked after a declaration by the Bank of Japan that the world’s second largest economy was now looking “sluggish”.
Although the central bank’s downbeat economic report included vague predictions of a return to growth over time, traders said that the comments had shattered any last hope that Asia’s export-led economy might somehow “decouple” from the woes in the US.
The picture was somewhat more stable in Shanghai, which spent a day in relative limbo following Monday’s 5.3 per cent nosedive. With Chinese stocks beating a daily retreat, investors are focused on the 2001 index high of 2,245-points. Some believe that level will hold up as a technical floor on the selling, others believe that it may shortly fail and unleash a much deeper collapse in stock values.
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US Secretary of the Treasury Paulson might be running out of options and funds to rescue a large US bank regardless of the consequences to investor confidence.
A big bank failure and a poor economic outlook for 2009 could trigger a sell off in the market....
S.M. Carlile, Cambridgshire, UK
Let us not fool ourselves that a giant US bank may go down due to global credit crunch as if the crunch happened by chance. Banks on purpose make credit boom and credit crunch alternately to syphon off hard earned real wealth from people. All these banks, BOE and FED included, are privately owned.
Dr Alok Bhattacharyya, London, UK
What, this guy work for a hedge fund shorting the us stock market, like Greenspan??
If you need your money in less than two years, quit trying to time the market, put your cash in a CD and take the inflation bite and shut up!
You know, I might win the lottery next year, could happen!
scott, chicago, usa
This disaster was caused by Democratic Senators like Schumer and Clinton (on the Banking committee) forcing banks to make loans to people who were bad credit risks. Schumer and Clinto failed in their basic oversight duty, all to curry favor with "minorities" and illegal immigrants.
Ken Sentis, Varninger, USA
Perception is NOT reality.
An unconstitutional, debt-based, coercion-based ("legal tender"), fiat medium of exchange is merely a mechanism for the clever to steal the labor of the ignorant. It is unsustainable in the long run because "government" (cabal) canNOT control Nature's market forces.
AbleGoodman, Aspen, USA
I thought banks were supposed to be good at investing money?
I don't have confidence in them not losing what I have in there now.
Shahar Helel, Perth, Australia
Where is the US getting the money to bail out its institutions? As far as I know it's several billions in debt to the rest of the world.
Maybe if the US stopped thinking it can do no wrong it may get somewhere.
Big Ger, Truro, England
I wish these articles would quote both sides. Try making an argument sometime instead of just showing the negative opinion.......oh, I forgot! That's what sells the papers!!! Duh!
Janice, Chicago, USA
@ Marion in LA ...good to see someone else sees it the way I do...They busted Argentina's peg to the dollar only to buy back everything the day after for a third of the price...economic mega coup!
Diego, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Tim in St. Louis is dead on. However, with President GWB's wild and crazy belief in the "unwavering benevolence" of the "free market", his minions on Wall Street were only too happy to pass on those hollow securitized mortgages and spread the virsu world-wide.
Dave, Carson City Nevada, USA
I hope that Michael in West Hampton is right. The need is for the US dollar to be gold-backed again - probably valuing gold at $10,000 an ounce - and for the Fed to be a buyer and a seller at that fixed price. Other major currencies should follow suit. Gold equals stability and more confidence.
Geoffrey Woollard, Cambridge, England
Everyone has a bit of the truth, but the bit of truth is oftentimes slanted by one's political or world view. My slant is this: "You can not serve both God and mammon" and "The love of money is the root of all evil".
Thomas, Minneapolis,
I pay $1700 a month for med insurance for my 3 sons, wife and myself . It only covers 70/30 I'm stuck with 30%, if anything goes wrong I'm screwed. I'm going bankrupt tryin to pay these premiums and it goes up all the time. The family man is all but ruined in the US I cant support my family
scott, fresno, usa
Guys,
Whats going to happen is the US will soon monitize the debt and pick up the tab for everybody. Then when we can no longer borrow money from other countries, the US will repudiate the debt, issue a new dollar, and the game will start all over again. Dont worry, be happy.
Michael, West Hampton, USA
Stop acting like victims. Economics have always changed and will continue to do so, as will employment opportunities and trends in what occupations make better choices than others. Decades ago, a corporate career was the "thing". Today, self employment is. You have to adapt, not complain.
robert van der upwich, long beach, ca, usa
Oh, Lord have mercy, Jessy Scholl, pppleas. Someone explain to me in logical economic sense, how in the heck Dubya created the housing bubble? Presidents can't do that...stupid lending institutions do that by lending $$ to folks that should have never received a loan to begin with.
TIM, St. Louis, USA
Anyone who blames one American political party or the other is a clueless idealogue. Both parties have merged to become the Republikrat/Demoblican party, of the globalists, by the multi-national corporations, and owned by Soveriegn Wealth Funds controlled by foreign governments hostile to the U.S.
Tommy Boy, Washington, D.C., USA
A major part of the problem is all the illegal immigrants to whom we are providing health care, education, etc. I have to pay $625 a month for my health care and can't afford to cover my children. I need to find out how to become an illegal immigrant so I can get everything free too!
Suzanne, Dallas, USA
wow, ever heard of the federal reserve? Credit expansion is the culprit, not a president. What you guys are saying is political bantha fodder. Read some more Austrian economics books, thank you.
Jon nielsen, south jordan ut,
Not only is greed running rampant, we no longer have business owners that are loyal to their own country & citizen workers. They continue to sell off their companies to foreigners, then it's us that are out of work eventually. No job, no revenue. I'm sure this goes on in the UK too.
Bobc, Grayson, USA
It is a number of factors. Niqua from Lancaster is half right because part of the blame lies in Democratic factors because we were in a recession during the 1992 election and Bill Clinton used the economy to his advantage and helped create the housing bubble with Republicans in power in congress.
Jessy Scholl, Mandan, ND, United States
What also helped is that the tech bubble burst on President Bush's II's first term and the housing bubble was created because Dubya didn't want to end up like his dad which would be a one term President.
Jessy Scholl, Mandan, ND, United States
I keep reading that this is the worst crisis since 1929. If that is the case then "we ain't seen nothing yet". The problem is we all think this will all pass in a year or two and we will carry on blowing the debt bubble. Those days are over but people have not got the message yet.
Chris, Chipping Norton,
I never disparage my country. We will make it through this crisis.
C. Kaufmann, Jackson, USA
Look to Argentina in the 90's, as model for what is being done to USA now. The same network of power mad financiers took down the Argentine economy, bankrupted the country, then bought it up on the cheap. Our free market economy/democratic republic are being dismantled by emerging Global Empire.
Marion, Los Angeles, United States
Nothing new here. Just more piling on by so called experts that do monday morning quarterbacking. It does not accomplish anything of value.
John, Surprise, USA
Time for the US to crash and burn.
Tim Osman, hartford, us
I'm not stuffing my money in the matress just yet.
John, St. Louis, USA
This article has been corroborated by several traders. The US Central Bank, (The Federal Reserve), has cut rate too low. Too much money was made available for lending and people that could not or should not buy houses bought anyway. The banks are taking a hit on the back end and are going under.
Fernao de Magalhaes, Guayaquil, Ecuador
I have been in retail for over 25 years. How can so called "experts" claim that raising interest rates heads off inflation. My friends, loan interest is a major factor in costs of operations. Interest rate goes up, means you must recover these dollars by raising your cost of goods.
randy, smithboro, USA
Niqua, Lancaster, USA, is completely right! Democrats claimed that "Minorities can't get loans for homes, because of institutional racism in the banking industry".
They then forced the banking industry to create these "sub-prime", no background check loans.
James X, California, USA
Quite amusing really - the present right wing US administration adopting socialist bail out policies at Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae. Go the full measure and Nationalise them why not? Ho-ho.
Stu Peters, Nova Scotia,
You do have to wonder what self full filling impact these experts have on perpetuating the very thing they write about. No doubt some number of people will be begin withdrawing money from their banks as a result of this article. I still remember Greenspan and his comments pre the tech bubble bust.
Keith , Philadelphia, US
Fred,
These are not conservatives who are using our taxes to bail everybody out of trouble. There are no conservaticves in the US Fed. Govt. and there is no difference between Dems and Republicans. They are all in the soup together!
ed, PA, USA
ed, newtown square, usa
lady at east west predicted wells fargo will be gone. thought she was nuts.
jorge, northridge, usa
These so called experts are just trying to keep themselves in the limelight. The true definition of expert is in 2 parts. Ex meaning has been amd spurt meaning a drip under pressure. just think about that definition and you will see that most experts are full of crap.
Dennis, Bacliff, USA
Why do these people have to open their big fat yaps? No one knows for sure what the future will be. All it accomplishes is making people nervous and depressed. Are their egos so out of control that they just have to have the spotlight on them all the time?
Steve Hollar, Lake Elsinore, USA
Paul B, Marshfield, USA
No Paul, what these banks have are willing accomplises in the US governement. These same conservatives who scream about compatition, think nothing of bailing these banks out with taxpayer money.
Fred, Wilmington, USA
Doom and gloom or realism?
There is little doubt that the USA economy is on a cliff edge and the failure of another major financial institution could push it over the edge.
And the gross financial/fiscal mismanagement of the Bush years just adds to the danger.
1929 all over again?
Joe McT, Glasgow, UK
All Central Banks, are privately owned, allowing a great Fascist Clique of Rockefeller's, Rothschild's, and Others, who control them, are the New Emperors, Greedily Distressing and Grabbing properties. Government's duty: Seize Central Banks: Halt Greed's Destruction.
James Thompson, Saint Petersburg, Florida , USA
Rogoff is actually an optimist. This is all just starting, and it is going to be very, very ugly. If you don't believe that, you are in for a real shock. Take my advice - prepare now.
Jim, Clinton, CT, USA
The backstops are in (credit facilities at Fed, U.S. taxpayer money) such that a failure of an institution many times the size of Bear will not be systemic. However the nasty trade off will be an enormous rise in inflation greater than the 1970s.UST 10-yr notes will near 10% before 2013.OBAMANATED
Duncan, Gloucester, USA
Thank you for the balance this article gives to the constant cheerleading coming from Wall Street these days. One cannot turn on the TV without seeing some talking head sounding the "all clear" and advising to get back into the financial stocks. We are NOT out of the woods.
Elwood, Los Angeles, United States of Apathy
Lets go ask another another leading academic economist his opinion and he will probably tell you something completely different. Whats the point? Where were all these geniuses back in 2006?
Tom, Newark, DE,
David Nammory - Good point on de coupling. There is decoupling to some scale, but the complicated investment structures negate much of that. Plus, there are relationships where they weren't expected. Think corn and energy. We'll see which firms had good fin. risk practices in the coming years.
Rob, Milwaukee, USA
There really is some claptrap and hypocrisy written on these comment boards. Yes we are going through tough times economically and yes the desire for profit is part of the cause - "greed " as the self-righteous call it. But its city profits and taxes that pay for welfare, schools, free health etc.
John Harte, Exeter, UK
"Large American banks have greater assets than many small countries and it would take an awful lot for one to fail."
Would that inc places like Zim and others where the COUNTRY has failed ?
Takes a lot but not impossible - and a lot is happening.
Saver, Cardiff, Wales
line six : "Untied States"
Maybe more true that intended, as things begin to come unravelled in the USA!
jonathan, stirling,
What is most interesting is how sure some people of disaster and how eagerly they are looking forward to that eventuality.
James Dill, Lansing, US
Many of the people making comments about the economy, whether in the USA or UK have their own agendas and are, unfortunately, able to to gain publicity for their views.
Some sensibly moderated opinions about growth, inflation , and interest rates would benefit us all.
Tom W, cheshire,
How many of you were around in the late 20's and early 30's? The writing is on the wall. Don't depend on institutions for anything, and I mean anything.
Greg, Charlottesville, USA
Paul Marshfield, you are blind to what's happening. Banking worldwide will crash because of what's happening in the U.S. Google "housing bubble" and study the analysis available. The world will soon see the kind of inflation referred to in Rev 6:6 of the bible.
Wilson Randolph, New York City, USA
And as usual the failed bank executives will retire into the red-ink sunset with their villas and yachts and third homes and off-shore bank accounts and leave the judicial system shrugging their shoulders. So what is wrong in this picture?
Eugene, heidelberg, germany
Every great civiliation has collapsed, and now we have a front row seat to see how it happens - greed and corruption seem to be the common driving factors as history repeats its self!
Scott, Wichita, KS, USA
The root cause of this financial turmoil, IMHO, has been the 'politicization' of the US Fed Reserve, specifically Greenspan. When the party is going strong, we love the bartender. When we sober up, the hangover sets in. Greenspan loved the limelight, and kept the drinks coming - low rates/too long.
Jim Anderson, Boston, US
We have not been here before so there are no comparisons to past financial crisis. Those in charge have a shocking lack of basic economic fundamentals. We are facing the fall of Western Capitalism with the looming question, What will replace it, The Rise of the East or a New Dark Age?
William L. Donlon, Rochester New York , USA
The worst hasn't come yet . The banks still haven't acknowledged all of their losses from the real estate meltdown and they are quickly running out of money. We are in a 'Catch 22' in that credit is tightening just when what it is needed to reverse the housing slump. Greed, greed and stupidity!
mike from nyc, NYC, USA
In the U.S. the blame must go to one place.
Unfortunately as a Democrat, it lies with the Democratic party who forced the lending industry to ease credit/borrowing rules. In doing so, many people who under previous circumstances never would have been able to get home loans suddenly were able to.
Niqua, Lancaster, USA
I am SO sick of the prophets of doom n' gloom! That's the way to do it, scare the bejeebers out of people. Ever hear of a self-fulfilling prophecy? Part of the problem is that these "respected experts" are causing a panic.
Brenda, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Paul,
The problem is those assets are either overvalued or junk.
Gort, VA,
"Large American banks have greater assets than many small countries and it would take an awful lot for one to fail."
...That's the problem, Paul! There is an awful lot wrong! It's your "too big to fail" mindset that caused the problem. Just plain arrogance.
Jon Whitmore, Binghamton, NY, US
Why has noone been charged for this almight financial hiccup? Surely banks and other financial institutions have breached a number of rules and regulations in allowing this crisis to start, and if they haven't, then governments and regulators should be help liable ?
Paul Singh, London, UK
Amidst all the recent gloom and doom there have been much learned comment that the crisis was over and growth would shortly continue.
What happened to the theory about de coupling?
With markets as volatile as this the only place to hide is in cash and here lies the true demise of equities..
David Nammory, Liverpool,
We keep hearing the worst is yet to come, I think the worst has past. Large American banks have greater assets than many small countries and it would take an awful lot for one to fail.
Paul B, Marshfield, USA
The wheels are about to fall off the Wall Street wagon and no one really knows how bad it could become.
Deregulation of the banking industry has been a huge mistake by Governments across the globe.
And the behaviour of most of the Banks has been simply barking mad.......
Joe McT, Glasgow, UK